Certainty in Forecasting Policy
A Path to Permanent Climate Impact
Across North America, over 1 million orphaned oil and gas wells pose a silent but urgent environmental and public health threat. These wells, many of which have been leaking methane—a potent greenhouse gas—for decades, contribute an estimated 280 kilograms of methane per well each year, adding up to over a million metric tons of emissions annually. Left unplugged, these wells can continue to leak into the future, with some already emitting methane for decades. Beyond the climate risk, abandoned wellheads also present a physical hazard, especially to children and livestock in rural communities.
Despite the severity of the issue, systemic barriers—such as regulatory gaps and economic disincentives—mean that very few wells are ever remediated, unless intervention comes from mission-driven organizations like Rebellion Energy. Through our proprietary Method of Plugging, we offer a scientifically verified and permanent solution that not only halts emissions but ensures long-term environmental integrity.
As the market leader in high-quality, low-risk well plugging projects, Rebellion is committed to transparency, operational excellence, and carbon credit integrity. We invite you to explore the FAQs and download a summary of our Certainty in Forecasting Policy, which outlines how we ensure each plugged well delivers measurable, verifiable, and permanent climate benefits.
FAQs
Certainty in Forecasting Policy for GHG Emission Reductions from Plugging Orphaned Oil and Gas Wells
These methane abatement projects involve doing work now to stop future emissions. In order to quantify those emissions, some degree of measurement must be taken. In order to know these volumes with 100% certainty, measurements would need to be taken for the full crediting period however then we would not have stopped the emission. Therefore, measurements are taken now and forecasted into the future. Key drivers of the certainty of this forecast include the initial baseline emissions rate measurement and the rate at which these emissions would have declined over time if the well remained unplugged.
Rebellion maximizes certainty by adhering to the rigorous baseline measurement criteria of the ACR methodology, employing longer measurement periods, utilizing available historical production data, and applying a conservative declining forecast. It is important to have a technical understanding of each variable so that rigorous, analyses may be applied, and credits may be separated based on their degree of certainty. This includes a range of potential decline profiles, from the ACR’s linear extrapolation to industry-standard terminal decline rates, to account for variability in well behavior.
The baseline emission rate is the measured rate at which an unplugged orphaned oil and gas well is emitting greenhouse gases (primarily methane) at a specific point in time. It serves as the starting point for forecasting the total volume of emissions that would have occurred if the well had not been plugged. The accuracy and stability of this initial measurement directly impact the reliability of the overall emission reduction quantification.
The ACR methodology requires a stringent process for establishing a stable baseline emission rate. This includes achieving consistent emission rate and flowing pressure readings under a constant choke setting, repeated twice with a 30-day shut-in period between tests. These criteria aim to account for potential fluctuations in emissions and capture stable point in time measurements from which to draw predictable forecasts.
The terminal decline rate represents the gradual decrease in a well’s energy during the final and longest lasting stage of its lifecycle. There is a high degree of certainty in determining the appropriate decline rate for orphaned oil and gas wells based empirically on the hundreds of thousands of wells that have produced over the past 50+ years in the United States. Rebellion applies a tight range of decline profiles, based on the level of emissions measured, and applies increasingly conservative rates of decline as those measured emissions potential increase.
Rebellion compiles and analyzes available historical production data for orphaned oil and gas wells to contextualize the measured baseline emission rate. By comparing the current emissions with past production trends, reservoir engineers can assess whether the well’s current behavior aligns with its history or if there are indications of other issues (i.e., mechanical). This analysis helps refine the understanding of the well’s potential future emissions and informs the application of appropriate starting points and rates of terminal decline.
Rebellion’s certainty analysis involves evaluating the confidence in the baseline emissions measurement (based on the emission rate and duration of stable testing) and the sensitivity of applying different terminal decline rates. This analysis results in categorizing potential emission reductions into “High-Certainty” volumes and those meeting the standard ACR methodology. High-Certainty credits are marketed and sold, while Rebellion retires those in excess, reflecting their conservative approach to avoid over-crediting.
Wells categorized as “Super Emitters” (with anomalously high emission rates) are recognized as having unique circumstances that require more in-depth analysis. They are not currently included in the formulaic approach for assigning terminal decline rates. Instead, the Rebellion team employs a tailored reservoir study for these wells to maximize forecasting confidence and maintain a conservative stance, potentially involving audits by professional engineers.